我国省级区域CO2排放配额估算及低碳经济模式研究

本文通过对我国30个省（市、自治区）在1990—2020年的实际CO2排放量与基于人均累积法应该得到的配额量情况进行对比研究,得出我国在2011—2020年各地区的CO2排放空间,同时将这些地区进行层次聚类划分,在排放空间的约束下,上海、北京、天津等省份剩空间不多,重庆、江苏、浙江、广东等省市需要零速增长或实现负增长,安徽、河南、贵州等省份可以按照目前的速度增长,针对不同的区域提出了实现低碳经济目标的研究策略及实现难易度。

Estimation of Provincial CO_2 Emissions Quotas and Low-carbon Economic Model under the New Circumstances

Based on the per capita cumulative method and data of actual CO2 emission amount in China＇s 30 provinces（not including Tibet）from1990 to 2010,this article presents a study of emission quota for different areas in the coming ten years（2011-2020）.Using the method of hierarchical clustering,our study reveals that,under the constraint of discharge space,while cities like Shanghai,Beijing,and Tianjin have limited discharge space,areas like Chongqing,Jiangsu,Zhejiang,Guangdong need to keep zero or negative growth.For provinces like Anhui,Henan and Guizhou,they can discharge CO2with the current rate.The article also proposes some research strategies to achieve a low-carbon economy for different regions.