我国国际收支对货币政策独立性的冲击

随着我国经济对外开放程度的日益提高,货币政策的传导机制已经不完全取决于国内的经济变量,因此,研究来自外部经济因素的影响就越发显得重要.本文通过Granger影响关系、VAR模型的冲击反应和误差方差分解方法证实了,在开放经济条件下我国国际收支状况的变化引致通货膨胀和国内生产总值的变动,继而揭示了外部冲击对我国货币政策独立性具有影响.

International Payments Shock on the Independence of Monetary Policy in China

With the increase of foreign opening level of economy in China,the transmission mechanism of monetary policy does not entirely depend on the domestic economic variables,and then it is important to study the effect from foreign economic factors.Through Granger causality test and VAR's impulse response and variance decompositions,this article proved that under the condition of opening economy,the changes in the balance of payment cause inflation and gross domestic product to change,therefore promulgated that the foreign shock bears influence on the independence of monetary policy in China.