TRADE AND THE ENVIRONMENTAL KUZNETS CURVE: IS SOUTHERN AFRICA A POLLUTION HAVEN?

Evidence that the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) may be explained by trade patterns casts doubt on the oft‐stated conclusion that economic growth automatically leads to environmental improvement. Trends in net exports as a proportion of consumption for both USA and UK trade with SACU were examined for various dirty industries. Some evidence of pollution haven effects is found, although a similar trend for clean industries suggests that this effect is weak. However, even a general shift in manufacturing industries from North to South (as opposed to a shift in specifically dirty industries) may explain the EKC to some extent.