利率变动和货币分析模型

本文以国际收支的货币分析模型为工具，借助1991年至2001年外汇储备、价格水平、经济增长和国内信贷这四个宏观经济变量的数据，分析了这四个宏观经济变量的变化如何影响利率变动的方向和幅度，比较了第八次利率下调的幅度与上述四个宏观经济变量所要求的利率变动幅度，并对预测利率变动所使用的工具和货币政策提出了一些建议。

On the Change of Interests and Monetary Approach

On the basis of the monetary approach of balance of payments, this article utilizes the data of foreign exchange reserve, price level, economic growth and domestic credit of China from 1991 to 2001 to analyze how the change of interest in China is affected by the change of those macro-variables, to compare the extent of decrease of interest made on February 21,2002 by the government with that determined by the monetary approach of balance of payments, and bring forward some advices about monetary policy and the tools used to predict the change of interest.