我国服务贸易自由化与经济增长的关系研究——基于脉冲响应函数方法的分析

本文运用基于VAR模型的脉冲响应函数法与方差分解法,考察了我国1982-2004年期间服务贸易进出口与我国经济发展的长期动态影响特征。冲击响应的分析结果表明:一方面,服务贸易进出口是影响我国经济增长的重要原因:另一方面,经济增长对于经济发展也存在反向作用,然而后者具有一定的滞后效应。方差分解结果显示,服务贸易自由化是解释经济增长的预测方差的重要变量,但经济增长对于服务贸易自由化的预测方差贡献度相对较小,经济增长对服务贸易的促进作用机制仍需要进一步完善。

Research on the Relationship between Service Trade Liberalization and Economic Growth——Analysis Based on Impulse Response Function

Using the impulse response function and variance decomposition method based on VAR model, this paper reviews the long time dynamic impact character of service trade and economic growth during the period of 1982 to 2004 of China. The analysis result of impulse response shows that, there is impact between economic development and service trade development each other. But economic growth may have led to reduced service trade growth with some delay on the other. And the results of variance decomposition analysis suggest that in general service trade is the main variable to explain the forecasting mean square error of the economic growth variable. On the other hand, the contribution of economic growth to service trade is relatively small, and the accelerating mechanism of service trade to economic growth need to be strengthened.