| 经济增长与金融发展：来自中国的时间序列经验证据 |
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| 引用本文： | 林勇,禄兴能.经济增长与金融发展：来自中国的时间序列经验证据[J].广西财政高等专科学校学报,2009(5):87-91. |
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| 作者姓名： | 林勇 禄兴能 |
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| 作者单位： | 西北师范大学经济管理学院,甘肃兰州730070 |
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| 摘 要： | 在运用主成分分析法构建金融发展指数的基础上,在三变量的向量自回归（VAR）框架下考察了中国1978—2007年期间金融发展与经济增长之间的因果关系。利用时间序列数据,采用协整和向量误差修正模型（VECM）计量方法进行了Granger因果关系检验,结果显示存在着从经济增长到金融发展的单一方向因果关系,支持了Robinson长期来看经济增长导致了金融发展的观点。
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| 关 键 词： | 金融发展 经济增长 主成分分析法 VECM |
Financial Development and Economic Growth： Empirical Evidence on the Time Series from China |
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| Institution: | LIN Yong, LU Xing- neng ( College of Economics and Management, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China) |
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| Abstract: | On the basis of constructing the financial development index by employing principal component analysis, this paper examined the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth in China over the period of 1978 - 2007 within a tri - variate VAR framework . Using time series data, the author made Granger Test of Causality by the cointegration and vector error - correction models （VECM）. The results showed that there was tmi - directional causality relationship from economic growth to financial development, which supported Robinson＇ s view that economic growth led to financial development in long run. |
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| Keywords: | financial development economic growth principal component analysis VECM （vector error- correction model） |
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