购买力平价、人民币价值之谜与“双效应-三阶段曲线”假说

以"购买力平价"为代表的传统国际金融理论认为货币的对内价值与对外价值应该一致,然而近年来,人民币凸显了以"对内贬值与对外升值并存"为特点的"价值之谜"。本文从购买力平价出发提出"人民币价值之谜"问题、在对"谜"的成因进行简单分析的基础上,讨论购买力平价的适用性问题,并进一步提出以决定通胀与升值关系的"双效应-三阶段曲线"假说来解释"谜"的现象。

Purchasing Power Parity,Paradox of Renminbi's Value and Hypothesis of "Double-effect with Three-stage Curve"

The classic international finance theory,which takes Purchasing Power Parity as representative,considers that a currency's outside value should keep the same changing trend with it's inside value.While,Renminbi has shown a phenomenon that has been the coexistence of the domestic inflation and the external appreciation in recent years,which we called"the paradox of RMB's value".This paper firstly introduces the paradox on the basis of Purchasing Power Parity. Secondly,the paper simply analyses the origin of paradox.Then the author makes a reappraisal on Purchasing Power Parity. Lastly the paper brings up a"double-effect and three-stage curve"hypothesis to explain the paradox .The hypothesis suggests that the relation of inflation and appreciation depends on the totality of substitute effect and complementary effect, and the totality divides the"inflation-appreciation"curve into three stages.