中国企业杠杆率周期演变机制探析

2008年国际金融危机以来中国经济增速逐渐放缓,然而企业杠杆率却呈现“逆周期”上升,同时国有企业与民营企业的杠杆率呈现“所有制分化”。上述中国企业杠杆率特有的周期演变机制有待探索。在优质资产相对缺乏和政府影响力较为强大的背景下,预算软约束和政府隐性担保对企业杠杆率的周期变化具有深刻的影响。本文基于Dewatripont and Maskin(1995)关于预算软约束的建模思想,引入经济基本面和政府隐性担保,考察了企业与银行间借贷博弈的均衡性质,进而探究了企业杠杆率在不同经济基本面下的变化规律。本文的理论模型证明,给定隐性担保水平,企业杠杆率的周期性取决于预算软约束的周期性,随着经济形势由差转好,预算软约束先增强后减弱,企业杠杆率逐渐从“周期性不定”转为“逆周期”变化。本文进一步分析了政府隐性担保的内生选择路径,发现其周期性变化对企业杠杆率周期演变过程中的所有制结构分化具有解释力,在其“递减型”或“倒U型”路径下,民营企业杠杆率周期性不定,国有企业杠杆率则在较长区间内呈“逆周期性”。本文最后还将现实中的有关政策措施纳入模型,讨论了机制优化的思路及其对企业杠杆率周期性的影响。

A Mechanism Analysis of Leverage Cycle of Chinese Enterprise Sector

Since the Global Financial Crisis in 2008,the growth rate of economy has decreased in China,while the leverage of enterprise sector has increased countercyclically,an ownership differentiation between state-owned and private enterprises can be seen at the same time.The special mechanism of leverage of Chinese enterprise sector changing with economic fundamentals remains to be explored.Under the economic environment of scarce high-quality projects and powerful government,soft budget constraint and government implicit guarantee may profoundly impect the mechanism of the evolution of leverage.This paper sets up a model based on Dewatripont and Maskin(1995)’s idea of soft budget constraint,adding economic fundamentals and government implicit guarantee to the original framework.This paper investigates the equilibria of the enterprise-bank financing game,then demonstrates how the leverage changes upon different economic fundamentals.The model presents that given the level of government implicit guarantee,the cyclical property of leverage depends on that of the soft budget constraint.As the economy goes better,the soft budget constraint will strengthen at first and weaken in the end,and the cyclical property of leverage will change from uncertain to countercyclical.This paper also explores the endogenous choices of government implicit guarantee,and finds that the types of cyclical paths give rise to a structural differentiation between state-owned and private enterprises.On the“decreasing”or“inverse U”paths,the cyclical property of leverage of private enterprises remains uncertain while that of state-owned enterprises is more likely to be countercyclical.Taking corresponding policies into the model,this paper discusses the mechanism improvements and their effects on the cyclical property of leverage.