基于ADF检验和CRn的我国汽车产业政策效应研究

通过对2007年1月至2011年8月我国汽车产销量的时间序列ADF检验,建构OLS法回归模型分析,发现2009年1月以来我国出台的一系列汽车产业发展政策对我国汽车产业的产销量产生了较大影响,其对产销量的增长有着明显的促进作用;同时,用行业集中度(CRn)分析汽车行业的集中情况,说明产业政策对提高我国汽车行业的集中度也产生了明显的政策效应。并结合结论和当前经济形势,提出未来我国汽车产业政策的相关建议。

The Research of China's Automotive Industry Policy Effect Based on the ADF Test and CRn

Based on the ADF test of time series data of Chinese automobile productions and sales from tanuary 2007 to August 2011,we find that Chinese automobile industrial policies since the January 2009 have a great impact on the productions and sales,particularly stimulating the increase of its productions and sales with the OLS regression method.What’s more,we demonstrate that the industry policies have a great effect on the increaseing in the concentration of Chinese automobile industry by constructing the concentration index(CRn).Finally,according to our findings and the present economic conditions,we put forward some suggestions for the policy of the Chinese automobile industry in the future.