| Abstract: | A model of illicit, addictive drug use is proposed when users have foresight. Impacts of drug use penalties, penalties on drug use‐related crime, support for drug user rehabilitation as well as the effects of health‐related, harm‐minimisation policies are analysed. In the short run, government policies impact only on the drug use intensities of existing addicted and casual users. Longer term policy‐induced user‐cost changes impact on new user and addict numbers through their effect on recruitment into addiction and quit dynamics. Effects of policies on user numbers, usage intensities and impacts on long‐run social costs are analysed over this long‐term horizon. The model provides a setting for analysing the long‐run effects of illicit drug management policies on the social costs of illicit drug use and allows assessment of drug use abstinence and harm minimisation policy tradeoffs. |
