ST公司中预测危机的现金流指标

本文的目的是探讨:在ST公司中,哪些财务指标可以在公司陷入危机之前起到预测危机的作用。文章采用实证研究的方法,选取了40家ST公司,并对它们陷入危机前第三年的与现金流相关的财务指标进行分析。最后,我们得出了预测模型,并得出结论:现金流动负债比,现金债务总额比,总资产现金比率以及经营现金流出结构比率这四类指标对于公司在未来是否会陷入财务危机具有很强的预测能力。

The Cash Flow Related Distress Predictors in the ST Companies

The purpose of this paper is to discuss:In those ST companies,which financial ratios can predict the distress before it happens.In this paper,we conduct an empirical research.We sample 40 ST companies from SSE and analyze the cash flow related data.Finally,we not only extract the forecasting model,but also reach the conclusion:the cash/current liabilities ratio,cash/liability ratio,total asset/cash ratio and OCF are very strong predictors for financial distress.