改革开放以来影响广东省外贸出口因素的实证分析

本文分析了广东省外贸出口与进口、FDI、出口对象国的经济增长及人民币名义汇率等影响因素的长期均衡关系,然后分析了短期中广东省外贸出口量对各影响因素波动的反应。得出结论:长期中,广东省出口额与外国收入、进口额、人民币名义汇率之间存在着正相关关系,而短期内进口额和人民币名义汇率对出口影响较大。

Deomonstration analysis of factors influencing Guangdong province foreign trade export from reform and opening up

In this paper, we analyze the long-run e- quilibrium relations between Guangdong Province＇s exports and its imports, FDI. the economic growth of the importing countries, the nominal exchange rate of RMB, and other factors. And then analyze the response of Guangdong＇s exports to the fluctuation of the above factors in the short run. At last we conclude： in longterm, there is a positive relation between Guangdong Province＇s exports and foreign countries＇ income, the amount of imports, and the nominal exchange rate of RM. And in the short run, the imports and the nominal exchange rate of RMB impact the exports more.