中国股票价格指数与宏观经济关系的实证研究

股票市场与经济增长之间的关系是经济学界中极富争议性的一个话题,而股票价格是否能反映国民经济状况,也是当前研究的热点问题。本文选择股票价格指数与经济增长,货币供应量以及进出口额的关系进行研究,通过协整检验等计量分析方法得出:中国股票价格指数和宏观经济增长指标相关性不强,股票价格指数在我国尚未起到"晴雨表"作用。

China stock price index and macro economy relation's demonstration research

The relationship between stock market and economic growth is one of the most controversial issues in the economic field. The current research also focuses on the isue that whether the stock price can reflect the status quo of national economic growth. In this Paper, we study the relationship between the stock price index and economic development. Further more, we employ＂ cointegration test ＂ on the latest data and make a conclusion that there is little correlation between the stock price index in China and macro economy, and the stock price index has not served as a reliable barometer.