A note on odds in the cattle futures market |
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Authors: | Seth C Anderson John D Jackson Jeffrey W Steagall |
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Institution: | 1. University of North Florida, Jacksonville, FL 2. Auburn University, Auburn, AL
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Abstract: | This paper investigates the odds of generating a 100-fold return in the cattle futures market. We employ cattle futures data
for the period October 11, 1978, through July 31, 1979, to compute the probability of obtaining such a return. The tests are
constructed to give the investor the benefit of the doubt whenever doubt exists. The most conservative finding is that the
probability is one in approximately thirty-one trillion. Assuming that the return is made in the most efficient way possible,
this probability falls to approximately 1.5×10−16. |
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Keywords: | |
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