生产性服务业对农业全要素生产率的影响研究基于中介效应的影响路径分析

目的 在农业高质量发展的背景下，探讨农业生产性服务业发展对农业全要素生产率的切实影响及其作用机制。方法 文章基于DEA-Malmquist指数测算了2001—2019年全国农业全要素生产率增长变动情况，探究农业生产性服务业发展对农业全要素生产率的影响贡献，并通过中介效应模型对其影响路径进行实证检验。结果 农业生产性服务业发展水平与农业全要素生产率间呈现“倒U型”关系，生产性服务业发展对生产效率的促进作用部分通过农业生产专业化分工程度的提高以及经营规模的扩大得以实现；不同阶段、不同发展水平的生产性服务业对农业全要素生产率的促进作用和影响路径存在差异，生产性服务业发展初期主要通过促进农业生产分工和专业化水平提升来推动生产效率增长，后续则表现为规模效应和专业化效应的共同影响。结论 农业生产性服务业发展有助于提升农业全要素生产率，未来应持续推进农业生产性服务体系建设，引导农业生产性服务业适度发展，助力农业现代化转型。

STUDY ON THE INFLUENCE OF PRODUCER SERVICES ON AGRICULTURAL TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITYANALYSIS OF THE INFLUENCE PATH BASED ON MEDIATING EFFECT

The high-quality development of agriculture is the fundamental way to realize the agricultural modernization in China. Against this background, the practical impact brought by the development of the agricultural productive services on the agricultural total factor productivity as well as the influencing mechanism is discussed.Based on the DEA-Malmquist index, this article calculated the growth variation of the agricultural total factor productivity in 29 Chinese provinces from 2001 to 2019 to examine the impact of the agricultural productive service industrial development on the agricultural total factor productivity and the contributions of the former to the later. Meanwhile, the mediating effect model was employed for an empirical verification of the impact path. The results showed that there was an inverted U-shaped correlation between the development level of the productive service industry and the agricultural total factor productivity, and the promoting role of the improvement of the productive service industrial development in productivity was partly realized through the improvement of the agricultural production specialization and labor division degree and the expansion of the operation scale. But the productive service industry at different stages and different development levels affected the agricultural total factor productivity to different degrees and through different paths. At the initial development stage of the productive service industry, the growth of productivity was fueled mainly by the agricultural production specialization and labor division. Later, the scale effect and the specialization effect jointly exerted an impact on the growth of productivity.In brief, the development of agricultural productive service industry is conducive to the improvement of the agricultural total factor productivity. Therefore, in order to further improve the efficiency of agricultural production, agricultural productive service system should continue to be constructed, and the government should make some policies to guide the agriculture productive industry towards moderate development, facilitating the agricultural modernization and transformation.