冰冻圈直接影响区综合发展水平研究以三江源区为例

目的 评价三江源区综合发展水平，明晰时空格局变化、剖析主控因子，可为三江源区绿色高质量发展提供决策参考。方法 文章从生态环境、经济和社会3个层面构建了三江源区综合发展水平评价指标体系，使用熵值法与综合指数评价模型相结合的方法，综合评价了2008—2017年三江源区综合发展水平；在此基础上，运用因子分析法揭示了影响三江源区综合发展水平的主控因子，并对主控因子与综合发展水平进行空间可视化分析，最后针对分析结果提出了发展对策与建议。结果 （1）2008—2017年整体上三江源区综合发展水平不断提高，增幅为42.55%，但发展实力依然偏弱，主要以低质量发展水平为主，面积占比总计达42.72%，总体呈现黄河源区综合发展水平高于长江源区和澜沧江源区，三江源区东部综合发展水平高于中、西部的分布格局。（2）在地区层面，称多、若尔盖、阿坝等县发展水平显著提高，而达日、甘德、玛沁等县发展缓慢，雪灾害频发是其发展缓慢的主要原因。（3）人均GDP、农村常住居民人均可支配收入、人均全社会消费品零售总额、交通运输能力、社会保障能力、信息通达指数、积雪持续日数、积雪深度是影响三江源区综合发展水平的主控因子。结论 三江源区在未来发展中，不仅要考虑区域内生态环境的保护，还要促进源区內经济、社会、生态保护等相关制度的完善，不断促进三江源区的绿色、可持续发展。

STUDY ON THE COMPREHENSIVE DEVELOPMENT LEVEL OF THE DIRECTLY AFFECTED AREA OF THE CRYOSPHERETAKING THE THREE RIVER SOURCE REGION AS AN EXAMPLE

Evaluating the comprehensive development level of the Three Rivers Source Region, clarifying the changes in the spatial and temporal pattern, and analyzing the main control factors can provide decision-making reference for the green and high-quality development of the Three Rivers Source Region. In this paper, an evaluation index system for the comprehensive development level of the Three Rivers Source Region was constructed from the three levels of ecological environment, economy and society, and the comprehensive development level of the Three Rivers Source Region from 2008 to 2017 was comprehensively evaluated by combining the entropy method and the comprehensive index evaluation model. On this basis, the factor analysis method was used to reveal the main controlling factors that affected the comprehensive development level of the Three Rivers Source Region, and the main controlling factors and the comprehensive development level were spatially visualized. Finally, development countermeasures and suggestions were put forward based on the analysis results. The results were listed as follows. The overall development level of the Three Rivers Source Region had been continuously improved from 2008 to 2017, with an increase of 42.55%, but the development strength was still weak, mainly low-quality development, with a total area of 42.72%. The development level of the district was higher than that of the source regions of the Yangtze River and Lancang River, and the comprehensive development level of the eastern part of the Three Rivers Source Region was higher than that of the central and western regions. At the regional level, the development levels of counties such as Chengduo, Ruoergai and Aba had improved significantly, while counties such as Dari, Gander and Maqin had developed slowly. The frequent occurrence of snow disasters was the main reason for their slow development. Per capita GDP, per capita disposable income of rural permanent residents, per capita total retail sales of consumer goods, transportation capacity, social security capacity, information accessibility index, number of days of snow cover, and depth of snow cover were the main control factors that affected the Comprehensive development level of the Three Rivers Source Region. Therefore, in the future development of the Three Rivers Source Region, it is necessary not only to consider the protection of the ecological environment in the area, but also to promote the improvement of the economic, social, and ecological protection systems in the source area, and continuously promote the green and sustainable development of the Three Rivers Source Region.