基于SEM的云南省URTT复合系统耦合协调机制研究

为获取城市化、区域经济、交通运输和旅游业(简称URTT复合系统)系统间具体的作用路径及作用强度,揭示URTT复合系统之间的耦合协调机制,文章构建URTT复合系统协调发展综合评价指标体系,运用基于改进的欧式距离耦合协调度模型定量测度URTT复合系统的耦合协调度,引入趋势面分析、结构方程模型等定量模型,分析云南省16州市URTT复合系统的耦合协调度时空演化特征、作用路径及作用效应(直接效应、间接效应和总效应)。结果表明:①2006-2015年,云南省16州市URTT复合系统耦合协调度逐年上升,但总体水平不高,93.75%的州市处于不同程度失调状态,空间上呈"中部高边缘低-东高西低-北高南低"的分布格局。②云南省16州市URTT复合系统作用路径网络化、复杂化特征更加显著。城市化系统和区域经济系统是影响URTT复合系统耦合协调发展水平的重要因素,交通运输业和旅游业系统作用路径较为直接和单一。③城市化系统对URTT复合系统的总体作用效应最大(2.239),区域经济系统次之(1.570),交通运输系统较低(0.158),旅游业系统不显著且主要表现为间接作用效果。④城市化和区域经济系统与潜变量间的作用效果较显著。因此,需重点从交通基础设施建设、旅游资源开发和配套设施建设等方面入手,着力提高交通运输水平和旅游服务水平,推动区域协调发展。

Coupling Mechanism of URTT Composite System in Yunnan Province Based on Structural Equation Model

In order to obtain the specific acting path and intensity among the system of urbanization, regional economy,transportation and tourism(referred to as URTT composite system), and reveal the coupling coordination mechanism between URTT composite systems, this paper constructs a comprehensive evaluation index system for coordinated development of URTT composite system, uses the improved Euclidean distance coupling coordination model to measure the coupling coordination degree of URTT composite system, and analyzes the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics,acting paths and effects(direct effect, indirect effect and total effect) of the coupling coordination degree of URTT composite system in 16 cities of Yunnan Province based on trend-surface analysis and SEM. The results show that: 1)From 2006 to 2015, the coupling coordination degree of the URTT composite system in 16 cities of Yunnan province increased year by year, but the overall level was not high. 93.75 % of the cities were in different degrees of imbalance and showed a spatial distribution pattern of " high in the center and low in the edge-high in the east and low in the west-high in the north and low in the south". 2) The networked and complicated features the of acting path among the URTT composite system in 16 cities of Yunnan Province are more significant. The urbanization system and regional economic system are important factors affecting the coupling and coordinated development level of the URTT composite system.The acting path is relatively direct and single in transportation industry and tourism system. 3) The urbanization system has the largest overall effect on the URTT composite system(2.239), the regional economic system is second(1.570), the transportation system is lower(0.158), the tourism system is not significant and its main performance is indirect effect. 4)The effect of urbanization and regional economic systems on latent variables is more significant. Therefore, it is important to focus on the construction of transportation infrastructure, the development of tourism resources and the construction of supporting facilities, strive to improve the level of transportation and tourism services, and promote regional coordinated development.