基于事件分析法的中国与中亚地区地缘关系演变

中亚地区是“一带一路”倡议的重要区域,更是中国西向出口的第一站,研究中国与中亚地区的地缘关系对于促进双方合作与发展、推进“一带一路”建设等均有重要意义。文章基于事件数据分析法,尝试运用定量手段衡量1992-2015年中国与中亚地区地缘关系的发展与演变,并探讨影响双方地缘关系演变的因素。发现:①地区尺度上,中国与中亚地区地缘关系的演变可划为低速平稳发展、快速发展、全面发展和波动调整四个阶段,双方累计互动147次、月均0.51次,且主要集中在政治、经济、安全、能源、文化等领域;②国家尺度上,中国与5个国家互动频繁,但国家间差异显著,其中中乌互动事件最多,而中塔最少;③将双方地缘关系的影响因素归纳为地缘政治、地缘经济和地缘文化三个方面,其中,地缘政治是先导性要素、地缘经济是重要因素、地缘文化是重要补充。

The Evolution of Geo-Relations Between China and Central Asia Based on Event Data Analysis

Central Asia is an important component of the Belt and Road Initiative and even the first stop for China's exports to the West, so it has great significance to study the geo-relations between China and Central Asia in promoting cooperation and development, accelerating the construction of the Belt and Road. According to the event data analysis, this paper tries to analyze the development and evolution of the geo-relations between China and Central Asia by the quantitative methods in 1992-2015, and explores the influencing factors of its evolution. The main results are as followings: 1) On the regional scale, the evolution of geo relations between China and Central Asia can be divided into 4 phases which are low-speed and smooth development phase, rapid development phase, overall development phase and fluctuation adjustment phase, the frequency of interaction is 147 times overall and 0.51 time per month, and their interactions are mainly focused in political, economic, security, energy, cultural and other fields;2) On the national scale, China has frequent interactions with the five countries, but a remarkable difference among them, the most interactions are between China and Uzbekistan, while the least between China and Tajikistan;3) Geopolitics, geo-economy and geoculture are the influencing factors of the geo-relations between China and Central Asia, among them, geopolitics is the leading factor, geo-economy is the important factor, and geo-culture is an important supplement.