黄淮海平原县域城镇化对乡村人—地—业的影响

中国长期的城乡二元结构使得城镇化未能有效带动乡村发展,并造成严重的乡村病问题。现有关于城镇化对乡村人-地-业影响的研究较少,关于影响机制的探讨更显匮乏。文章基于黄淮海平原县域数据,刻画县域乡村系统与城镇化发展的时空格局,利用地理探测器模型探析城镇化对乡村的影响,并探讨其影响机制。研究发现:①乡村人口发展空间分异不明显,而乡村土地、产业发展空间分异明显,其高值区主要分布于山东省、环渤海湾周边地区等;②黄淮海平原县域城镇化率呈逐年上升趋势,且空间分异明显,高值区主要分布于山东省、京广铁路沿线周边地区、环渤海湾周边地区等;③城镇化对乡村土地的影响不显著,同时,土地城镇化对乡村的影响不显著,乡村人口和产业的发展主要受人口城镇化和经济城镇化的影响,城镇化交互作用能够增强对乡村的影响力;④合理的城镇化发展可有效促进乡村人-业发展,有助于实现城乡融合和乡村振兴。

Influence of County Urbanization on Rural Population-Land-Industry in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain

Because of the long-term urban-rural dual structure in China, urbanization has failed to effectively promote rural development, and causes serious rural problems. The existing researches are rather less in the impact of urbanization on rural population-land-industry and its impact mechanism. Based on the county-level data of the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, this study explores the spatial-temporal pattern of rural system and urbanization in the county. Then, this article analyzes the impact of urbanization on the countryside and the impact mechanism using the geo-detector model. The results of the study show that: 1) The spatial pattern of rural population is not obvious, but the spatial differentiations of rural land and industry are obvious, and their higher value areas are mainly distributed in Shandong Province and areas around Bohai Bay;2) The urbanization rate of counties in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain increases year by year. The spatial differentiation of urbanization is obvious. The areas with higher value are mainly distributed in Shandong Province, areas along Beijing- Guangzhou Railway and around Bohai Bay;3) The impact of urbanization on rural land is not significant. Meanwhile, the impact of land urbanization on rural areas is also not significant. However, the development of rural population and industry is mainly affected by urbanization of population and economic urbanization. The interaction of urbanization can strengthen the impacts on rural areas;4) Rational urbanization can effectively promote rural population and industry development and contribute to urban-rural integration and rural revitalization.