贸易保护视角下中国出口导向型外资企业产品演化

由于世界各个国家的国家利益博弈,中国产品出口经受着频繁的贸易摩擦、贸易保护壁垒和反倾销的冲击,这不仅影响本国经济发展,也影响外商投资者的决策。文章基于中国海关库2001—2011年的数据和WTO贸易保护数据,构建二值Probit非平衡面板模型,分析贸易保护与中国出口导向型外资企业时空演化特征,探讨外资企业与本地企业的产业联系及其溢出效应,与国际环境贸易保护措施的互动关系。实证结果显示,技术关联对产品路径演化发挥了重要作用,阻碍外资企业产品的退出,贸易保护与技术关联的互动关系表明贸易保护存在切断地方原有路径依赖联系的机制,贸易保护产生了削弱技术关联对外资企业产品退出负向影响的作用,贸易保护的消极影响,实际是一种路径解锁的过程。此外,进一步验证了外资企业不同产品类型与不同贸易类型表现出的异质性,量化说明了一般贸易、加工贸易嵌入本地市场程度不同,贸易保护对加工贸易的影响更大。

Spatial-Temporal Evolution of China's Export-Oriented Foreign-Funded Enterprises' Products from the Perspective of Trade Protection

As a result of the interests of various countries in the world, the export of China’s products is subject to frequent trade frictions, trade protection barriers and anti-dumping shocks, which not only affects the economic development of China, but also affects the decision of foreign investors. Based on the data of China Customs Database and WTO Trade Protection Database from 2001 to 2011, this paper constructs a Probit unbalanced panel model to analyze the spatio-temporal characteristics of trade protection and China’s export-oriented foreign-funded enterprises, and explores the industrial relationship and spillover effect between foreign-funded enterprises and local enterprises, and the interaction with international environmental and trade protection. The empirical results show that industry relatedness plays an important role in the evolution of product path and hinders the withdrawal of foreign-funded enterprises. The interactive relationship between trade protection and industry relatedness indicates that trade protection has a mechanism to cut off the local original path dependence. Trade protection has resulted in weakening the negative effect of industry relatedness on the products withdrawal of foreign-funded enterprises. The negative impact of trade protection is actually a process of path breakthrough. In addition, this paper further verifies the heterogeneity of different product and trade types of foreign-funded enterprises. It quantifies that the degree of embedding of general trade and processing trade in the local market is different, and trade protection has a greater impact on processing trade.