老工业城市收缩与城市紧凑相关性研究——以吉林四平市为例

应用熵值法与收缩度模型对2000—2016年四平市城市紧凑度与收缩度进行测算分析的基础上,借助RStudio软件,对四平市城市收缩度与紧凑度进行相关性研究。研究发现:①四平市自2012年人口开始流失(SSD>0),出现城市收缩的现象,且收缩度不断上升。②2000—2016年四平市城市紧凑度(JCD)整体呈上升趋势,5个一级指标中土地利用紧凑以2009年为节点呈现先下降后上升的趋势,经济紧凑、基础设施紧凑、生态环境协同都基本保持波动上升态势,人口紧凑总体趋势以下降为主。③2000—2016年四平市城市收缩度(SSD)与紧凑度(JCD)相关性达0.7以上,具有显著相关性。5个一级指标中经济紧凑度与SSD的相关性最大,影响最为显著,其次为基础设施紧凑、生态环境协同,人口紧凑与SSD为负相关,相关性最小的为土地利用紧凑。结合2000—2016年四平市JCD及5个指标的变化趋势,认为其对四平市SSD具有较大的驱动作用。通过以2012年为节点的时段分析可知,随着四平市社会经济的不断发展,人民对生活水平要求的不断提高,城市紧凑度对人口流动、城市收缩的影响逐渐加大。应调整四平市的产业结构,促进产业优化升级;出具优惠政策,吸引高精尖人才回流;摒弃单一的、以增长为导向的规划理念;改善城市基础设施建设和生态环境,提高城市宜居性;抓住城市收缩的契机,调整城市用地空间布局,打造紧凑型城市空间结构,促进城市良性发展。

Correlation between Urban shrink and Urban Compactness Ratio in Old Industrial City: Taking Siping City in Jilin Province as an Example

Taking Siping City-an old industrial city in Northeast China-as the research area, this paper measure the urban compactness ratio and shrinking in Siping City from 2000 to 2016 applying the entropy method and the contraction model, and analyzes the correlation between urban shrinkage and compactness ratio in Siping by the R-Studio software.The results show that:1) The population of Siping City has been lost since 2012(SSD>0), so the phenomenon of urban shrinkage has occurred at that time and will continue to rise.2) From 2000 to 2016, Siping City’s urban compactness ratio(JCD) shows an overall upward trend. The land use compactness(LUC) of the five first-level indicators shows a trend of decline first and then rising in 2009, the economic compactness(EOC), infrastructure compactness(IFC) and ecoenvironmental synergy(EEC) basically maintain a fluctuating upward trend, and the overall trend of population compactness(POC) is mainly down. 3)From 2000 to 2016, the correlation coefficient between urban shrinkage(SSD) and compactness ratio(JCD) in Siping City is| above 0.7. Among the five first-level indicators, EOC has the most correlation with SSD, which means that it has the most significant impact on urban shrinkage, followed by IFC, EEC. POC was negatively correlated with SSD, and the least relevant to SSD is LUC. Combined with the trend of JCD and five indicators in Siping City in 2000-2016, it has a greater driving effect on SSD. Taking 2012 as the time node, it is known that with the continuous development of society and economy in Siping City, and people’s demands for living standards are constantly improving, the impact of urban compactness on population mobility and urban shrinkage is gradually increasing. It puts forward some suggestions as followings:adjusting the industrial structure of Siping City, promoting the industrial optimization and upgrading, formulating preferential policies to attract high-quality talents, abandoning a single, growth-oriented planning concept, improving urban infrastructure construction and ecological environment to enhance the livability of Siping City;seizing the opportunity of population loss and urban shrinkage, adjusting the spatial layout of urban land, creating a compact urban spatial structure, and promoting the benign development of the city.