农业劳动力价格上涨对农作物种植结构变化的省际差异性影响

文章采用1981-2015年的省域面板数据,在分析主要农作物种植面积比例变动趋势的基础上,利用线性混合模型探究了农业劳动力转移及其价格上涨对农作物种植结构变化产生的影响。结果表明:①与1981年相比,2015年中国省域粮食作物、棉花种植比例整体呈下降趋势;蔬菜、油料种植比例整体呈增长趋势;大豆种植比例在大多数省份呈下降趋势,少数省份呈上升趋势;在粮食作物内部,小麦种植比例整体呈下降趋势,玉米则呈增长趋势,水稻种植比例在部分省份呈下降趋势。②农业劳动力转移及其价格上涨对农作物种植结构变化的影响存在显著的省际差异性。农业劳动力转移会促进大宗粮食作物种植比例的增加,同时也有利于促进经济发达地区及大型农产品集散区的经济作物(蔬菜)种植比例增加。农业劳动力价格上涨有利于促进经济作物种植比例的增加,尤其是蔬菜种植比例,但不利于传统粮棉作物种植比例的增加,尤其是棉花种植比例。③除此之外,工业化水平、农业机械化率、人均耕地面积、农业补贴、化肥、灾害率均对作物种植比例的形成及变动具有不同程度的影响。

The Impacts of Rural Labor Price Rising on Crop Structure among Provinces

This study attempts to map changes of the major crops planting proportion across China based on the provincial panel data from 1981 to 2015. Linear mixed model is employed to analyze the various driving factors,especially rural labor migration and rural labor price rising. The results show: 1) compared with the year of 1981, the planting proportions of grains and cotton decline significantly, but those of vegetables, oil-bearing crops generally increase, and soybean planting proportion in most provinces decline, within grain crops, wheat planting proportion generally decline but those of corn are increase, and in some provinces rice is decline. 2) Inter-provincial difference impacts of rural labor migration and rural labor price rising on crop structure have been seen across China. Rural labor migration increases the planting proportions of grains and cash crops, such as vegetables, grown in economically developed areas and large agricultural product distribution centers. Rising of rural labor price exert significant positive impacts on the planting proportion of cash crops, especially vegetables, whereas it has negative impacts on traditional crops, particularly cotton. 3) In addition, industrialization level, agricultural mechanization ratio, per capita cultivated area, agricultural subsidy, fertilizer and disaster ratio have varying degrees of impacts on crop planting structure.