台湾资产不景气时期物价变动之计量分析

在1990-2002年中国台湾经济处于资产不景气时期,消费者物价呈温和上扬走势。为探讨在这段时期物价的走势与决定因素,本文以物价水准的计量分析,从成本面与需求面上找出最适的解释变权。并对于物价水平有较密切关系的变数,进行pearson相关系数分析,而后进行回归分析以便了解变数间的相关程度。总之,在这段分析期间,消费者物价变动的决定因素与趸售物价不尽相同。进口物价的变动直接冲击着趸售物价,然后再经由趸售物价而传递到消费者物价的变动上,此时,预期心理的因素仍扮演较重的角色。

The Measurement of the Changing Price in the Asset Recession in Taiwan

From 1990 to 2002,economy in Taiwan is in the period of asset recession,and price is on the mild increase.To probe the tendency and factors of the price in this period,the paper finds out the most suitable changeable weight from the aspects of cost and need according to the measurement of price standard.The paper also analyzes,with the pearson correlation coefficient,the variables relevant to the price standard,and then with the regression analysis,the correlation extent of the variables.It indicates that in this period,the decisive factors of the changing customer price are different from the wholesale price.The change of import price has direct impact on the wholesale price,by which the change is passed on to the customer price,and at the same time,expecting psychological factors still play the important role in it.