| Abstract: | Historical simulations of urban residential growth in Baltimore and Houston based on a model of the growth process which has two distinct components are presented. The vintage component utilizes the growth of income and population, and an assumption that housing is putty-clay, to predict the age distribution of the housing stock in each period. The spatial component of the model determines where this housing construction will take place according to (1) housing is built on vacant land and (2) the pattern of construction obeys the rules of the standard monocentric models. Housing is demolished when economically obsolete. The putty-clay (vintage) aspect of the model produces fairly accurate city-wide vintage distributions, but there is much more mixing of vintages and income (in Baltimore) by location than predicted, even under monocentric assumptions most favorable to mixing. |
