中国人造板产量统计的偏差与修订

根据第一次全国经济普查资料,分析林业统计年鉴中人造板产量的统计偏差。结果表明,人造板总产量统计偏差率为47%。其中胶合板统计偏差率高达60%;山西等省的统计偏差率高于80%。统计口径范围不全、统计方法不完善和统计力量投入不足是造成人造板产量统计偏差的主要原因。利用趋势离差法对1996~2003年中国人造板历史产量数据进行了修订。最后,提出树立全行业全口径统计观念等完善林业统计的政策建议。

The Bias and Interpolation in China Man-Made Board Output Statistics

According to the First National Economic Census,this paper analyzes the statistical bias of man-made board output in China Forestry Statistics Yearbook.The results show that the statistical bias rate of man-made board output is 47%,in which the statistical bias rate of plywood output is 60% and the statistical bias rate in some provinces such as Shanxi is more than 80%.The main reasons are incomplete statistics caliber、the imperfectly statistical methods and inadequate input.By using the trend deviation interpolation method,man-made board historic output during 1996~2003 has been revised.Finally,some policy recommendations are given.