货币危机预警理论及实证比较研究——兼对中国的模拟分析及启示

随着我国汇率制度改革的不断深入,人民币汇率浮动的幅度扩大,汇率对经济的调节功能日益显现。这同时也增大了我国的货币风险。文章在论述东南亚金融危机后货币危机理论最新发展的基础上,从理论和实证角度比较了五种货币危机预警模型的预警效果、优缺点,并对预警模型在我国的模拟应用作了探讨。

The Currency Crisis Early-warning Theories and Their Positive Comparative Studies

With the deepening of our country's exchange rate system reform,the fluctuation scope of the exchange rate of RMB has expanded.The economic adjustment function of exchange rate is becoming evident,which at the same time also greatly increases currency risk.Based on the latest development of currency crisis theories after Southeast Asia financial crisis,this paper compares the early warning effects,advantages and deficiencies of five currency crisis early warning models from the perspectives of both theory and demonstration.Meanwhile,it also explores the simulating operation of early warning models in our country.