基于动态期限相关法的股市价格泡沫实证检验

本文通过构造动态期限相关法,以250个交易日为定样本容量窗口.动态的考察了我国上证综合指教从1992年1月2日到2008年11月28日各个阶段的价格泡沫状况.实证表明,我国股市自建立以来,价格泡沫就伴随左右.而且阶段性的暴涨暴跌,极易催生泡沫.随着次级债危机的爆发,股市急剧下跌,当前已经产生了负向的随机泡沫.

Testing Stock Market bubbles in China by Means of The Dynamic Duration Dependence Method

By means of dynamic duration dependence method,this paper measures stock market bubble of Shanghai composite Index dynamically from Jan.2nd 1992 to Nov.28 th 2008 with making 250 trading days as a fixed window. The evidence confirms that rational bubbles exist since the establishing of the stock market and rising suddenly and sharply will easily produces bubbles.Along with the outbreak of Sub-prime Crisis,the stock index declines rapidly and there some negative stochastic bubbles at present.