预案分析的贝叶斯网络方法

在对预案进行评估分析和执行过程中常会涉及不确定性问题,传统的预案编制工具关键路径法(Critical Path Method,CPM)不具备处理不确定性问题的能力。本文推荐的贝叶斯网络法(Bayesian Networks)因其处理分析不确定性问题的能力已经被广泛应用于一系列的决策支持应用,但对预案评估分析的应用是新颖的。本文介绍了用贝叶斯网络法分析传统关键路径法编制的预案。

Contingency Plan Analysis of Bayesian Networks

In the process of contingency plan analysis and execution,we meet uncertainty problem frequently.The traditional critical path method(CPM) can not deal with uncertainty problem.Bayesian networks which has capability to dispose uncertainty problem is applied to support decision-making widely.It is novel to use bayesian networks in contingency plan analysis.In this paper,a contingency plan is presented,which utilizes bayesian networks in CPM.