In search of the Phillips curve for India |
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Authors: | Biru Paksha Paul |
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Institution: | aDepartment of Economics, State University of New York at Cortland, PO Box 2000, Cortland, NY 13045, United States |
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Abstract: | The economics literature suggests that the Phillips curve is nonexistent in India. This study finds that supply shocks, namely droughts and oil crises, and the liberalization-policy shock of the early 1990s are the main reasons for the absence of the Phillips curve in India. Once I account for these shocks by reconstructing the data of inflation and the output gap in crop year instead of fiscal year, and move to the industrial sector, the Phillips curve emerges in the conventional fashion. Thus, the short-run tradeoff between inflation and industrial output is still possible in India, as it is in other developed economies. |
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Keywords: | Phillips curve Supply and policy shocks Inflation Output gap Indian economy |
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