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Calibration of a model of declining prices in cattle auctions
Affiliation:1. National Institute of Education, 1 Nanyang Walk, Singapore 637616 Singapore;2. Department of Education, National Taiwan Normal University, 162 Heping East Road Section 1, Taipei, Taiwan;1. Division of Traumatology, Surgical Critical Care, and Emergency Surgery, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania;2. University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania;3. Department of Anesthesiology and Critical Care Medicine, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania;4. University of Pennsylvania School of Nursing, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania;1. Max Planck Institute of Psychiatry, Kraepelinstr. 2, 80804, Munich, Germany;2. Division of Signal Transduction, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, 3 Blackfan Circle, Boston, MA 02115, USA;3. Department of Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA
Abstract:Using data from dairy cattle auctions plus independent appraisals of the cattle sold, this paper is able to verify the existence of the “declining price anomaly”: prices decline over the course of the auction, with the main decline occurring towards the end of the day. We show that the data are consistent with a simple model of sequential auctions of goods with independent values, and examine distributions which replicate the important features of the data. The crucial feature driving the price declines in the model is a limited capacity for purchases by the participants in the auction, which in turn decreases competition for the final units in the auction.
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