劳动力结构变化影响制造业结构升级的实证研究

运用1996-2015 年省级面板数据，构建FGLS 模型，本文实证检验了劳动力结构变化对制造业结构升级的影响效应。结果表明：在劳动力年龄结构中，新生代劳动力占比上升能促进制造业结构升级，即对劳动、资本密集型制造业影响效应为负，而对技术密集型制造业影响效应为正且作用强度较大；在劳动力素质结构中，知识型劳动力占比上升对制造业结构升级具有一定推动作用，即对劳动密集型制造业影响效应为负，而对资本和技术密集型制造业影响效应为正，但作用系数较小；在劳动力性别结构中，男性劳动力占比上升阻碍了制造业结构升级，即对劳动密集型制造业影响效应为正，而对资本和技术密集型制造业影响效应都为负。最后根据实证结论， 就如何顺应劳动力年龄、素质与性别结构变化顺势推进制造业结构升级，提出了相应的政策建议。

An Empirical Study on the Effect of the Labor Structure Change on the Upgrading of Manufacturing Structure

Based on the data of provincial panel subdivision industry from 1996 to 2015, this paper constructed FGLS linear regression model, and empirically tested the effect of labor structure change on the upgrading of manufacturing structure. The results show that: first, the increase of the proportion of the new labor force in the age-structure of the labor force can promote the upgrading of the manufacturing structure, and in other words, the negative effect on the labor and capital-intensive manufacturing industry, and the positive the increase of manufacturing has effect on the technology-intensive manufacturing industry and the stronger effect; Secondly, the rising proportion of knowledge-based labor force in the quality-structure of the labor force has a certain promoting effect on the upgrading of the structure of the manufacturing industry, and in other words, the influence effect on the labor-intensive manufacturing industry is negative, while the influence effect on the capital and technology-intensive manufacturing industry is positive, but the influence coefficient is small; Third, the increase of male proportion in the labor force gender-structure hinders the upgrading of the manufacturing industry structure, that is, the influence coefficient on the labor-intensive manufacturing industry is positive, while the influence coefficient on the capital and technology-intensive manufacturing industry is negative. And then, according to the results of the empirical test, on how to promote the upgrading of the manufacturing structure in line with the changes of the age-structure, quality-structure and gender-structure of the labor force, the paper makes some corresponding policy suggestions.