首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
     检索      


Exchange rate expectations and risk premia in the European Monetary System: 1985–1991
Authors:Stefano M F G Cavaglia  Kees G Koedijk  Peter J G Vlaar
Institution:(1) City University, London, UK;(2) University of Limburg, Maastricht, Netherlands;(3) De Nederlandsche Bank, Amsterdam, Netherlands
Abstract:Using a new set of survey data on EMS exchange rates, we investigate exchange rate expectations and risk premia between December 1985 and August 1991 to assess credibility of the system. It appears that the EMS—with the exception of the Italian lira—had become credible since early 1990. Moreover, one of the core predictions of the target zone literature—the inverse correlation between the position of the spot rate in the fluctuation band with its expected change—is corroborated for several currencies in the period after April 1990. Although the system appeared to be more credible, the persistence of interest differentials suggested the existence of risk premia. For four out of six currencies we find a significant relationship between the risk premium and the inflation differential relative to Germany.
Keywords:EMS expectations  credibility  risk premia
本文献已被 SpringerLink 等数据库收录!
设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号