就通胀风险与通缩风险交替出现的困扰来探讨宏观调控的走向

近几年,产能过剩日益严重,经济运行面临通货紧缩的危险.这颇令人关注.另一方面,在产能过剩的情形下,旨在拉动经济运行的投资扩张仍在继续.按照常理,投资持续扩张有可能导致通货膨胀.因而,经济运行面临投资扩张和产能过剩并存,以及通胀风险和通缩风险交替出现的困扰.那么,这些问题的产生是否意味着宏观调控出现了什么纰漏?笔者拟就两大经济风险与宏观调控的走向作初步探讨.

A Probe into the Developing Direction of Macro - economy Control in the Light of the Puzzlement about the Alternant Appearance of Inflation and Deflation Risks

In recent years,the problem of overcapacity has been getting more and more serious and the operation of China's economy is confronted with the danger of deflation,which has attracted much attention.On the other hand,the expansion of investment which is aimed at promoting the growth of economy is still continuing under the condition of overcapacity.As usual,the continuous expansion of investment will result in inflation.Therefore,economic operation is confronted with the problem of co-existence of investment expansion and overcapacity,the alternant appearance of inflation and deflation risks.Does the emerging of these problems mean that there is some mistake in the regulation of macro-economic control? The author discusses the developing direction of the two economic risks and macro-economic control.