中国农村金融发展对农村经济的影响分析——基于AK理论的多变量误差修正模型

本文通过研究农村金融市场融资能力及信贷效率对农村经济的影响,来分析农村金融发展对中国农业经济的重要性。首先基于帕加诺内生经济增长理论选取与经济增长率相关的且能反映农村金融市场融资能力的金融指标,其次基于这些金融指标,通过误差修正模型,在统一的框架内综合分析金融市场的发展对农村经济的影响情况,并定量分析农村经济增长与信贷、投资间的互动过程。计量结论显示在长期信贷与优化的金融结构、完善的金融融资渠道能够促进农业经济增长,但中国农业经济增长不能内生吸引信贷资金。农业经济增长的长效机制在于发展高效农业,监管部门要通过指导意见改善农村金融结构与金融渠道、促进信贷支农特别是支持乡镇企业的投资,以此为基础实现农村产业与农村金融市场的良性互动。

Analysis of the Impact of Chinese Rural Financial Development to the Rural Economy -- Based on AK Theory Multi Variable Error Correction Model

In this paper, through the financing capacity of rural financial market and credit efficiency impact on the rural economy, to analyze the rural financial development on the importance of agricultural economy Chinese. First, based on the financial index of Pagano Hei Sen＇s theory of economic growth is choosing and economic growth rate, which can reflect the rural financial market financing capacity, then the financial indicators based on, through the error correction model, development in a unified framework of integrated analysis of the financial impact on the rural economy, and quantitative analysis of the interaction process of rural economic growth and credit investment, between. Measurement results appear in long-term credit and optimize the financial structure, improve the financial financing channels to promote agricultural economic growth, but Chinese agricultural economic growth cannot endogenous attract credit funds. The long-term mechanism of agricultural economic growth is the development of efficient agriculture, supervision departments should adopt guidelines to improve rural financial structure and financial channels, to promote the credit supporting agriculture especially support township enterprises investment, to achieve the benign interaction of rural industry and rural financial market.