保险周期存在性的协整模型检验：基于中国市场的分析

本文对宏观经济波动可能引致保险周期的内在机理作了理论分析，然后利用协整模型并辅以误差修正模型验证了中国的现实情况，发现保险行业运行在长期来看与经济体系的发展较为一致，其周期特性得到间接证明，但经济的短期扰动对保险行业影响不大，同时，保险经营业绩与利率变动负相关，产险业的发展与宏观经济的联系不太紧密。

The verification of the existence of insurance cycle with Co-integration Model:an analysis based on the Chinese market

Beginning with a theoretical analysis about the endogenous mechanism of how macro-economy fluctuations lead to the insurance cycle,this article made an empirical test of the actual situation in China with the co-integration and error correction models.It revealed that the insurance industry correlated with the economic system in the long-run,which indirectly proved the existence of its cyclicity,but short-term economic disturbances had little effect on insurance industry.In addition,the analysis also revealed that the performance of insurance operation had a negative correlation with interest rate movement,and the property-liability insurance industry was not closed linked with the macro-economy system.