养老保险金稳性债务问题的精算分析

目前国内对隐性债务问题模型的研究,大都集中于封闭系统内,不能有效的反映投保面扩张等人口变化对隐性债务的动态影响.本文在总结国内外相关研究的基础上,利用代际核算方法,对我国养老保险金封闭系统内的隐性债务和开放系统内的隐性债务进行建模测算；分析测算结果,得出若不考虑新参保者的影响,“中人”的缴费远远不能满足自身养老金发放的需要,若把扩大参保面当成解决隐性债务的方法来考虑,则是否有效,关键还得看工资增长率等影响因素是否在合理范围；最后,分别从体制内和体制外两方面给出解决隐性债务问题的相关建议.

An Actuarial Analysis of Implicit Debt Problems of the Current Public Pension System

Currently, in our country,people study the model of implicit debt mostly in a closed can not effectively reflect the dynamic effects arising by the insured surface expansion of demographic system which changes to the implicit debt. On the basis of a summary about the research home and abroad, using the generational accounting, this paper estimates the implicit debt of the pension insurance within the closed or open system and comes to two conclusions ： If not considering the impact of the new enrollee, the contribution of participators will be far from covering the needs of their future pension benefits;If expanding enrollment surface is considered as a way to solve the implicit debt, the key to keep this method effective is keeping the wage growth rate and other factors within reasonable limits. Finally, this paper puts forward some suggestions on how to solve the implicit debt problems both from within the system and outside the system.