上海市全社会需电量预测分析

以上海市人均GDP为基础,采用上海市1978—2002年的历史资料,建立了上海市人均需电量与人均GDP的回归模型;利用这一回归模型对上海市2020年前的主要年份全社会需电量进行了预测和分析,结果表明这一回归模型基本上能反映上海市不同经济发展阶段的用电水平。

Forecast and Analysis of Shanghai Electricity Demand

Based on the GDP (gross domestic product) per capita for Shanghai Municipality and its historical data from 1978 through 2002, a regression model, representing the relationship between the electricity demand per capita and GDP per capita in Shanghai, has been established to forecast and analyze Shanghai social electricity demand for main years before 2020, and results show that this model can basically reflect the electricity consumption levels at various economic development phases in Shanghai.