2020年中国物价走势分析与判断

2019年我国宏观经济运行总体表现平稳,国内生产总值逼近100万亿元,较2018年增长6.1%,比当年CPI涨幅高3.2个百分点。2019年的整体物价水平处于合理区间,基本实现了政府对物价水平的调控目标。2020年,新冠肺炎疫情不可避免会对经济社会造成较大冲击,但近年来随着供给侧结构性改革的深入推进和经济发展阶段的变化,我国经济运行的内在基本逻辑和机理均在发生变化,而这次重大疫情的冲击将会使这种转变加速显性化。综合起来看,我国经济长期向好的基本面没有改变,疫情的冲击是短期的、总体上是可控的。受疫情和猪肉价格上涨翘尾影响,预计2020年我国CPI涨幅将呈“前高后低”态势。

Analysis and Judgment of China’s Price Trend in 2020

In 2019,China’s overall macroeconomic performance was stable.GDP is close to 100 trillion yuan,an increase of 6.1%over 2018,3.2 percentage points higher than that of the current year’s CPI.In 2019,the overall price level is in a reasonable range,basically achieving the government’s goal of price control.The novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic in 2020 will inevitably cause a great impact on the economy and society.But in recent years,with the deepening of the structural reform of supply side and the change of economic development stage,the basic logic and mechanism of China’s economic operation are changing,and the impact of this major epidemic will accelerate the change.On the whole,the fundamentals of China’s long-term economic growth remain unchanged,and the impact of the epidemic is short-term and generally controllable.Affected by the epidemic situation and the rise of pork prices,it is expected that China’s CPI growth will show a trend of“high before and low after”in 2020.