| Abstract: | This paper presents a simulation model, based on a stochastic spatial equilibrium framework, for the GB potato market, allowing for trade with the Continent and the operation of domestic stabilisation policy. The model is used to explain the operation of the two policy instruments — support buying and area control — and to evaluate policy options and consequences. The notion of a cost-effective support buying programme is introduced and it is found that current policy is in the region of cost-effectiveness. Quota area, subject to the constraint that downside price risk is avoided, is found to lead to a trade-off between the consumer interest and the financial cost of policy. This trade-off is examined in a conventional welfare analysis and in probability terms. Subject to certain caveats, it is concluded that current policy tends to provided price stabilisation rather than price enhancement for producers. |
