高铁会影响东北地区产业结构演变吗？*——东北振兴的另一种思路

经济的竞争归根到底是产业的竞争,在全面推进高速铁路建设和积极推动产业结构升级的背景下,基于东北地区147个县和34个城市的数据,运用SARAR模型分析高铁对不同行政区域产业结构的影响.研究发现:高铁建设存在着显著的空间集聚性,同时高铁建设对城市产业结构产生一定的正向溢出效应;高铁促进了城市和县域产业结构高级化水平提升;高铁还会带来"鲍莫尔成本病",即高铁不利于地区产业结构合理化调整;高铁在产业结构的虹吸效应中起到促进作用;高铁会通过抑制第一产业发展来促进第三产业发展进而影响地区产业结构;高铁对产业结构的影响主要是通过资本要素产生影响.同时采用了4种方法检验高铁对产业结构调整的影响,发现相关结论仍然是稳健的.最后根据研究结论从要素流动、政府干预和交通衔接等角度提出相关政策建议.

Will High-Speed Rail Affect the Evolution of Industrial Structure in Northeast China: Another Idea for the Revitalization of Northeast China

The economic competition is ultimately the competition of the industry. Study on the driving force of industrial structure upgrading under the background of rapid construction of high-speed rail, based on the data of the Northeast, the spatial SARAR model is used to analyze the impact of high-speed rail on the industrial structure of different economies. Research findings: First, there is a significant spatial agglomeration in the construction of high-speed railways. At the same time, the construction of high-speed railways has a certain positive spillover effect on the urban industrial structure. Second, the high-speed rail has promoted the upgrading of the city"s and county"s industrial structure. Third, the high-speed rail has no effect on the rationalization of the industrial structure of the city, but it inhibits the upgrading of the rationalization of the county"s industrial structure. Fourth, high-speed trains play a catalytic role in the siphon effect of the economy of industrial structure. Fifth, the high-speed rail has inhibited the development of the primary industry in cities and counties, promoted the development of tertiary industries in cities and counties, and had no significant impact on the urban and county secondary industries. Sixth, high-speed rails affect industrial output by affecting capital elements in cities and counties. Four methods have been used to test the impact of high-speed rail on industrial restructuring and found that the relevant conclusions are still robust. Finally, according to the conclusion, we put forward relevant policy recommendations from the perspective of factor mobility, government intervention and traffic convergence.