公众预期与货币政策有效性

现代货币政策理论特别强调预期在货币政策有效性发挥中的核心作用。在对有关经典预期理论进行探讨之后，借助标准的新凯恩斯模型分析了预期对货币政策操作结果的影响，认为公众预期会对货币政策有效性产生影响，使得政策结果偏离目。标水平，而且在把“Brainard不确定性”纳入分析框架之后，预期对货币政策有效性的影响程度将更大，即政策结果完全由预期决定，同时对预期形成的影响因素进行了有益的探讨。并在对全文总结的基础上，提出了一些建设性的启示。

Expectation and Monetary Policy Effectiveness

Modern monetary policy theory emphasizes the crucial role of private sector expectations in affecting monetary policy execution.After briefing on some classical expectation theories,this paper adopts standard New Keynesian model to analyze the effect of expectation on monetary policy execution.The conclusion is that public expectation does affect monetary policy execution,and make goal interference.Introducing the Brainard's uncertainty into the framework,the study leads to an even severer effect,which means that the outcome of monetary policy is completely determined by public expectation.The paper also proposes some instructive enlightenment.