蜈蚣博弈新视角——预期心理的应用

考虑到在蜈蚣博弈中运用逆推归纳法具有不稳定性以及混合策略的存在,无论是理性人假设发生偏离和理性人假设不发生偏离的情况下,逆推归纳法解蜈蚣博弈都具有不合理性。采用预期心理的方法可以预测蜈蚣博弈结果最有可能出现的结果。通过第三方的实验数据检验,蜈蚣博弈结果会以70 %的概率出现在预期心理预测的阶段。

A New Vieupoint of Centipede Game--an Application of Anticipate Psychology

The backward induction, using in centipede game, is unsuitable under the conditions of rational hypothesis and un - rational hypothesis, because of the instability of backward induction and mixed strategies. The anticipate psychology gives some most possible results of centipede game. The experiment dates collected from third party shows that the forecast made by anticipate psychology is right in the possibility of 70%.