低放固体废物处置场项目基本预备费估算研究 ——基于蒙特卡罗模拟法

目前我国对于核设施退役与放射性废物治理相关项目的需求日益增长,为确定现有规定中的各设计阶段的基本预备费费率是否能满足工程实际需求,本文针对低放固体废物处置场项目使用CRYSTAL BALL软件进行蒙特卡罗模拟,对工程的基本预备费进行计算。本文通过对两种方案分别进行Beta-PERT分布和正态分布模拟,得到不同置信区间下的基本预备费费用和费率并进行验证,得出基本预备费费率基本目前项目的实际情况,验证了蒙特卡罗模拟方法在低放固体废物处置场可行性研究阶段基本预备费的估算具有可行性,有良好的应用和推广价值。

Research on Estimating Basic Reserve Cost of Low-level Solid Waste Disposal Site Project:Based on Monte Carlo Simulation

At present,the demand for projects related to decommissioning of nuclear facilities and radioactive waste treatment in my country is increasing day by day.In order to determine whether the basic reserve fee rates in each design stage in the existing regulations can meet the actual needs of the project,this paper aims at low-level solid waste disposal sites.The project uses CRYSTAL BALL software to perform Monte Carlo simulation to calculate the basic reserve cost of the project.In this paper,by simulating the Beta-PERT distribution and normal distribution of the two schemes respectively,the basic reserve fee and rate under different confidence intervals are obtained and verified,and the basic reserve fee rate is basically the actual situation of the current project.It is concluded that the Monte Carlo simulation method is feasible to estimate the basic reserve cost in the feasibility study stage of low-level solid waste disposal sites,and has good application and promotion value.