On the persistence of lackluster demand—the history of the video telephone

Some radically new, technological products soar smoothly from introduction to stunning market growth, just as textbooks say they should. However, that is not always the case, nor is it even the most likely outcome. The case of the videophone is an extreme one to be sure but it offers six important lessons that apply to many other radically new technological products: (1) not every new technology leads to stunning market success; (2) just because the press says it will, does not mean it will; (3) growth often takes longer than expected; (4) growth often reaches lower levels than expected; (5) technological convergence is not a certainty; and (6) innovations involving complex systems face more hurdles to market acceptance than “stand-alone” innovations.