基于区间多阶段随机规划的水资源优化配置模型及应用

针对水资源系统中供需水存在的不确定性和随着时间推移呈现的动态性,基于黑龙江省历年供水、用水及社会经济等数据确定规划年的水资源参数及经济参数,采用区间参数反映系统中的不确定性,利用多阶段随机规划反映水资源配置中的动态性,进而建立了多水源、多用水户的区间多阶段随机规划模型,模型通过平衡水资源配置系统中用户配置水量、系统风险与系统收益三者关系,可实现系统最大经济效益。利用该模型对黑龙江省水资源配置问题进行研究,结果表明:规划年黑龙江省生活、工业和生态用水均可以得到满足,农业用水在丰水年基本得到满足,枯水年缺水量为15.32亿~49.40亿m³,与现状年相比,农业缺水得到一定程度的缓解；水源供给方面,地表供水比例稳步提升,可以较好保护地下水源。

A model for optimal allocation of water resources based on interval multistage stochastic programming and its application

In view of the uncertainty of water supply and demand in a water resources system and its dynamics with the passage of time, based on the data of water supply, water consumption and social economy in Heilongjiang Province over the years, the water resources parameters and economic parameters in the planning years were determined. The uncertainty in the system was reflected by using interval parameters, and the dynamics in water resources allocation was reflected by using multi-stage random planning. An interval multi-stage random planning model with multiple water sources and multi-purpose users was then established, based on which the water resources allocation in Heilongjiang Province was studied. The results show that the domestic, industrial and ecological water consumption in Heilongjiang can be met in the planning years, and the agricultural water consumption is basically met in wet years, with the water shortage of 1.532 billion to 4.94 billion m³ in dry years. Compared with the current years, the agricultural water shortage has been alleviated to some extent. In terms of water supply, the proportion of surface water supply steadily increases, which can better protect underground water sources.