人口结构、财政支出刚性对地方政府性债务的影响——基于中国省级面板数据的研究

根据2012年各省级政府地方政府债务数据和1995~2013年省级层面地方政府债务水平的面板数据，运用固定效应模型、差分 GMM 和系统 GMM 模型，考量人口流出比例、老年人口抚养比、财政支出刚性对地方政府债务增长的影响。结果表明：人口流出比例越高、老年人口抚养比越高，财政支出刚性越高，地方政府负债率越高。鉴此，应严格政府举债程序，改变以户籍为导向的财政转移支付政策，理顺各级政府之间的财税关系。

Demographic Structure, Fiscal Expenditure Rigidity and Local Government Debt: A Study Based on Provincial Panel Data of China

In this paper,we utilize the provincial-level panel data of local government debt in 1 995-2013 with fixed effects model,difference GMM and System GMM model to analyze the in-fluence of the population outflow proportion,elderly population dependency ratio,rigidity of fis-cal expenditure on local government debt growth.The results show that:the higher the propor-tion of population outflow,the higher the proportion of the elderly population,the higher the fi-nancial expenditure,the higher the local government debt ratio.Monitoring government borrow-ing process,improving fiscal transfer payment rules,optimizing the relationship between fiscal and tax policy,etc.,are crucial to strengthen local government debt management.