美国经济会因次贷风波而衰退吗

次贷风波后弱于预期水平的美国最新经济数据加剧了市场担忧，美国经济“衰退论”大量涌现．这种极端化观点最大的弊病在于混淆了短期波动和长期趋势。结合美国经济结构特征、演化历史和最新变化，本文认为美国经济在长期内进入衰退的可能性较小，最根本的原因在于关国消费并没有出现长期萎靡的趋势，而具有易变性的投资放缓很可能是造成短期GDP增长率下降的重要因素，影响力相对较小且本身波动较大的净出口则不可能对美国长期经济增长造成较大打击。

Will Sub-prime Storm Lead to American Recession

The economic data of America after sub-prime storm is weaker than before, which worsens the market confidence and brings recession argument. The biggest disadvantage of such extreme argument is the confusion of short-term fluctuation with long-term trend. Combining the structure character and history of American economy with current change, this paper thinks that the possibility of recession is tiny because of the strong long-term consumption, the changeability of investment and the less GDP contribution of net export.