我国居民收入与资产价格关系的实证研究

居民收入与资产价格之间到底存在怎样的关系是理论界广泛关注的问题。在中国当前特殊情况下,房地产和股票分别是两大具有代表性的实体资产与虚拟资产。本文基于较大期限跨度的数据,使用Jo-hansen协整检验和Granger因果关系检验方法,对居民收入和资产价格之间的关系进行实证研究。结论表明,居民收入提高不会导致实体资产价格上升,但会对虚拟资产价格产生一定的影响。基于此,现阶段国内要稳步发展房地产市场和股票市场,引导投资者合理投资,在提高居民收入时要注意促使居民扩大消费而不是追加投资。

Demonstrative research of China citizen income and equity price relation

It is a problem that what kind of relationship exists between residents＇ incomes and asset price,which draws general concern of the theoretical circle.In China＇s current exceptional circumstances,real estate and stock is the representative of the physical assets and virtual assets.Based on a larger time span of data,using the Johansen cointegration test and Granger causality test method,we do an empirical analysis on the relationship between residents＇ incomes and asset price.The findings show that income gains will not lead to inflation of physical asset price,but will have some impact on virtual asset price.As a result,at this stage we should develop the domestic real estate market and stock market steadily; guide the investors to be more rational; pay attention to encourage residents to expand consumption,rather than additional investment.