| 中国经济的潜在增长率及其多维动态平衡 |
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| 引用本文： | 牛立超. 中国经济的潜在增长率及其多维动态平衡[J]. 改革与战略, 2011, 27(12): 26-28,94 |
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| 作者姓名： | 牛立超 |
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| 作者单位： | 清华大学经济管理学院博士后流动站,北京100084;中国民生银行博士后工作站,北京100031 |
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| 基金项目： | 北京市教委科研基地—科技创新平台—都市圈研究中心(2011)，北京市市社科规划项目，北京市自然科学基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 文章运用HP滤波法、生产函数法和菲利普斯曲线法对1980--2009年的中国经济潜在增长率进行了对比分析，认为中国经济目前的潜在增长率为8％～10％，中值为9％。但是，从未来的更长时期来看，由于经济结构的调整和人口红利等诸多因素的影响，中国经济潜在增长率将会下降，宏观经济调控将更多地注重多维动态平衡。
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| 关 键 词： | 潜在增长率 经济结构调整 多维动态平衡 |
China's Economy's Potential Growth Rate and Multi-dimensional Dynamic Balance |
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| Niu Lichao. China's Economy's Potential Growth Rate and Multi-dimensional Dynamic Balance[J]. Reformation & Strategy, 2011, 27(12): 26-28,94 |
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| Authors: | Niu Lichao |
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| Affiliation: | Niu Lichao (1. School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua University Postdoctoral Research Station, Beijing 100084; 2. China Minsheng Bank Postdoctoral Work Station, Beijing 100031) |
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| Abstract: | This paper compared and analyzes the China＇s economic potential growth rate from 1980 to 2009 by using the HP filter method, the production function method and the Phillips curve method. We believe that the potential growth rate of China growth is 8%-10%, 9% in value. But in the longer period to see, because of the adjustment of economic structure and demographic dividend, and many other factors, China＇s economic potential growth rate will drop; macroeconomic control will be more attention multi-dimensional dynamic balance. |
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| Keywords: | potential growth rate adjustment of economic structure multi-dimensional dynamic balance |
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