| 国际石油现货价格波动对我国通货膨胀率波动的影响 |
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| 引用本文： | 曾林阳. 国际石油现货价格波动对我国通货膨胀率波动的影响[J]. 国际贸易问题, 2009, 0(4) |
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| 作者姓名： | 曾林阳 |
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| 作者单位： | 广州暨南大学金融系; |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金(70473032); 广东省普通高校人文社会科学科研究重点项目(06JDXM79002)的支持 |
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| 摘 要： | 现有文献认为国际石油价格波动对我国通货膨胀影响显著,而且国际油价对我国通货膨胀存在显著的单向Granger因果关系。从定性分析来看,既存在支持国际石油价格波动会对我国通货膨胀产生影响的理由,也存在削弱这种影响的理由,因此定性分析的结论是模棱两可的;从基于Almon PDL模型的经验分析来看,并没有令人信服的经验结果支持国际石油价格波动会对我国通货膨胀产生显著影响的结论,因此可以得出国际石油价格波动对我国通货膨胀影响并不很显著,但存在微弱影响的结论。
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| 关 键 词： | 国际石油现货价格 通货膨胀 Almon PDL |
The Effect of International Spot Oil Price Fluctuations on China Inflation Rate:Empirical Evidence from Almon PDL Model |
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| ZENG Lin-yang. The Effect of International Spot Oil Price Fluctuations on China Inflation Rate:Empirical Evidence from Almon PDL Model[J]. Journal of International Trade, 2009, 0(4) |
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| Authors: | ZENG Lin-yang |
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| Affiliation: | ZENG Lin-yang |
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| Abstract: | In the current literatures,it is postulated that the fluctuations of international oil price have significant effects on China inflation rate,and the causality of such effects is significantly unidirectional from the former to the latter.The qualitative analysis of this paper shows that some evidence supports the above postulation,but some others not.Nevertheless,the empirical evidence of this essay from Almon PDL model shows that there is no convincing quantitative evidence supporting the above postulation... |
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| Keywords: | International spot oil price Inflation rate Almon PDL |
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